February 5, 2020 – Warming trend with dry conditions through the rest of the week. Turning windy and cooler late in the weekend, with a few light Sierra snow showers on Sunday.
Discussion
Other than varying amounts of high clouds spilling over the eastern Pacific ridge, skies are clear across the region early this morning. Winds are lighter across most of the area compared to early Tuesday which is allowing temperatures to be cooler compared to 24 hours ago across most of the Central Valley (lingering north wind is keeping temperatures in the 40s across the northern Sacramento Valley). Current temperatures range from the mid teens in the mountain valleys to the 30s through the remainder of the Central Valley.
Highly amplified pattern will maintain dry weather across the region through the remainder of the week. Gradual modification of the airmass will lead to slow moderation of overnight low temps and a little milder daytime temps as the week progresses.
Next slider type system forecast to drop down from the north beginning later Saturday, and may bring some showers to the higher terrain, but confidence on details is rather low at this time.
Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Upper trough digs into NorCal Sunday bringing cooler temperatures and increased wind. System appears to have limited associated moisture with main threat of precipitation confined to the Sierra Nevada.
Upper ridging follows Monday into Tuesday with dry weather and above normal temperatures. Another short wave trough drops in from the north midweek. Deterministic models differ with track while ensembles suggest system digging into the Great Basin Wednesday. This storm, given its over land trajectory as it drops southward from B.C., will also have limited moisture. Attm, best chances for measurable precipitation appear to be over our foothills and mountains.