February 22, 2020 – Dry weather except for a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers, mainly over the Sierra Nevada south of Highway 50, through the afternoon. Above normal temperatures continue today, with a slight cool down Sunday. Dry weather with above normal temperatures continue next week.
Discussion
Early this morning, radar returns were noted over Stanislaus and Tuolumne Counties as an upper closed low off the coast of southern California makes its way onshore. Soundings show a significant amount of dry air from the surface to roughly 12kft making any measurable precipitation unlikely, although a few sprinkles may be possible this morning.
Have a few chances for additional light precipitation over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon as the system moves across southern California. Some hi-res guidance indicates a few hundredths may be possible in this location, with light snow on mountain summits; however, the better chances for precipitation remain south of the area.
Another day of temperatures in the 70s is expected in the Valley today, with a slight cool down back into the 60s Sunday. Ridging builds back into the area early next week and a warming trend in temperatures will be seen along with mostly clear skies. Afternoon highs on Tuesday look to be about 10-15 degrees above climatology.
Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Dry and mild conditions expected to continue later next week as upper ridge persists along the West Coast. While very warm for this time of year, highs should fall short of records which are mainly in the low 80s across the Central Valley. There are signs that the ridge may break down in early March, but confidence in any details is low at this time.