Mild and mostly quiet weather the next week. Slight shower chances at times over the higher elevations with locally breezy winds. Slight cooling again today with temperatures trending slightly warmer by Saturday.
Discussion
A short wave trough is starting to push into the northwest part of the state and we are starting to see light radar returns over Shasta County. These light scattered showers are going to continue across mainly Shasta County through 8 am as the trough axis works through. A few showers will linger over the southern Cascade and the Burney Basin into the afternoon. Some weak CAPE does build in during the afternoon and a few lightning strikes are not out of the question but overall the thunderstorm threat is very low. Some areas could see up to 0.25″ of rain with these showers but most areas will remain below 0.10″.
We are seeing some increased onshore winds ahead of the trough and that will continue throughout the morning with breezy high Sierra winds continuing into the afternoon.
Weak ridging builds in for Friday with northerly flow developing across the Sacramento Valley, wind gusts to 20 mph will be possible during the afternoon. Ridging then pushes to the east on Saturday as a trough digs out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Models and ensembles are generally in good agreement with this system but there is some uncertainty on how far south the trough digs. Overall this wont have mush impact on the forecast for our area as the main forcing will remain to our north. Light showers are still expected starting Saturday night continuing into the afternoon mainly over the higher elevations north of I-80 but a few showers may make it into the northern Sacramento Valley. QPF looks very light with less than 0.10″.
Short wave ridging returns on Sunday with another trough digging out of the Gulf of Alaska late Sunday into Monday bringing the return of some light showers mainly over northern areas. Highs will continue their cooling trend today with them being a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Warming returns Friday and into the weekend.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Models continue to differ with depth of system for Monday with EC showing storm digging farther south into NorCal. Guidance showing main threat for some light precip will be north of I-80 with highest POPs over the mountains. Drier weather expected Tuesday into midweek with significant warming and some locally gusty wind as EPAC ridging builds inland.