Dry through mid-week, possible mountain snow with travel impacts Thursday night and Friday

February 16, 2021 – Dry weather will return the next few days before another system brings additional precipitation Thursday and Friday.

Discussion

Monday’s weather system is just about finished with radar indicating only a few lingering snow showers across the northern Sierra Nevada early this morning. Precipitation amounts overnight have been very light with most northern Sierra locales reporting only a few hundredths of an inch of liquid equivalent with perhaps an inch or so of snow accumulation at the higher elevations. These showers will be tapering off over the next few hours as upstream high pressure begins to move in.

Eastern Pacific upper ridge edges closer today, and then moves overhead on Wednesday bringing dry weather and a warming trend through the middle of the week. We’ll likely see some patches of morning valley fog, especially early this morning, before drying northerly winds reduce the fog threat Wednesday and Thursday.

Another system is forecast to spread precipitation across the region late in the week. Ensembles currently favor another weak to moderate system. Still, some uncertainty as the QPF spread is fairly wide, but most of the forecast area should see at least some light precipitation by Thursday night and early Friday. The higher mountain passes may see some relatively minor travel impacts.

Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

An upper level trough will be moving across Northern California on Saturday, exiting the area by Saturday night. Some light mountain precipitation may linger into the afternoon as this feature passes. From here, ensembles are in good agreement of ridging returning over California bringing another stretch of dry weather through early next week. A system passing to the north on Sunday may bring some cloudiness to the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding areas, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected Sunday into next week. As for temperatures, a warming trend is forecast from the weekend through mid-week with Valley temperatures possibly reaching into the low 70s as early as Monday. NBM guidance does show quite a bit of variability around Tuesday into mid-week so there is some uncertainty with highs after this timeframe.