Dry today, light precip on Tuesday before an extended period of dry weather

March 11, 2019 – Dry today then a weak storm moves through Tuesday bringing light precip to portions of the forecast area. Dry weather follows into next weekend with some breezy north to east wind Wednesday into Thursday.

Discussion

The upper low that brought showers and isolated thunderstorms to the forecast area on Sunday as shifted southward off the coast taking any precipitation with it south of the CWA. Most of the forecast area is under clear skies this morning except for some scattered clouds south of Sacramento. A shortwave ridge dropping southward over the north state today will bring continued fair skies and warming with daytime highs this afternoon climbing to near normal for this time of year. Generally fair skies and a little below normal temperatures are expected tonight.

A weak upper trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring the next threat of precipitation to the northern forecast area by Tuesday morning. Models showing this to be an inside slider type weather system quickly slipping into the northern Great Basin by Tuesday afternoon. Main impacts of this system will be over the eastern portions of the forecast area, over the Sierra Cascade range by producing relatively light precipitation. Current QFF progs indicate only about an inch or two of snowfall with moderate snow levels around 4000 feet. Precipitation drops off quickly Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the upper low shifts eastward.

Breezy north winds kick in on Wednesday as upper level and surface gradients combine but at this time wind speeds look to remain under advisory criteria. Cooler airmass will bring cooling on Wednesday despite the clearing skies. A weak and likely dry trough passes over the north state on Thursday keeping daytime temperatures from warming much before upper ridging returns bringing warming going into next weekend.

Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

A period of dry weather will be seen Friday through early next week as mid-level ridging persists across the western US. A system skims far northern California Saturday into Sunday, which may act to bring some cloud cover to the area, but no precipitation is forecast at this time. The main story for the weekend will be the warming temperatures, with portions of the Valley reaching into the 70s by Sunday. Temperatures continue to warm even further on Monday.