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February 26, 2021 – Mild and dry weather expected through the weekend. Breezy north to east winds return Saturday into Sunday morning. Unsettled weather may return early next week.

Discussion

Dry northerly flow will persist on today generally between 5 and 15 mph. Some cooler air will be moving into the region as well, most noticeably over the north and in the mountains.

On Saturday another low pressure area moves into the Great Basin that will result in breezy to windy conditions over the interior once again. Cooler air will continue to move into the region on Saturday continuing the cooling trend.

Wind gusts will generally be between 25 and 35 mph from late Saturday morning through the afternoon for the valley. Wind advisory is not anticipated for the whole valley but the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin valley’s may become close to a low end event with the sustained winds nearing 25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Breezy conditions may continue into Sunday morning before subsiding. Temperatures will be warmer with a ridge of high pressure building over the region.

Models are in good agreement through Sunday. Monday begins the day of uncertainty with models diverging indicating either ridge or trough over the region. Have continued to leave some chances in the forecast over the north end of the valley and mountains but confidence remains low at this time.

Extended discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Tuesday is looking like a dry day for the region then some uncertainty starts to crop back into the forecast due to Monday’s uncertainties in the models. Wednesday continues to look mainly dry but some showers may pop up over the Sierra Nevada if the GFS solution works out but GEFS is keeping that time period dry for now.

The next best chance where the models are in fair agreement will be Friday night and Saturday for a possible decent rain event.