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February 27, 2021 – Mild and dry weather continue. Breezy north to east winds expected today, gradually decreasing into Sunday. Chances of precipitation are forecast to return late next week.

Discussion

Some high clouds are moving through the area as an upper level trough works its way towards the Four Corners region tonight and through the weekend. Precipitation stays north of the area today with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, but this is still quite mild.

Winds will increase today as a vort max on the back of the trough moves into the Great Basin. The surface pressure gradient will increase as upper level ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest. North winds in the Valley may gust up to 35-45 mph this afternoon, with the strongest winds in the northern San Joaquin Valley and then spread into the foothills and the mountains later in the evening and continue through Sunday morning. Mountain areas may see gusts from 35 to 45 mph.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the northern San Joaquin Valley, the southern Sacramento Valley and the Delta from 11 am this morning to 6 pm this evening.

This event does not look as strong as the previous event, as the timing of the strongest winds aloft comes later in the afternoon. This is less optimal for bringing down stronger winds and could limit peak gust strength to some extent. Winds could still reach criteria levels for a time and bring impacts. These include branches being blown down, loose objects blown around, and medical tents and outdoor restaurant coverings could be affected. Driving a high profile vehicle may be difficult at times.

Ridging builds over the area again on Sunday with lighter winds and warming temperatures returning. Ensemble guidance is continue to trend towards a closed low developing off the coast and moving south, leaving most of NorCal dry for the beginning of next week. For now precipitation looks limited to a slight chance of rain for western Shasta County Monday afternoon.

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Short-wave ridging expected to result in dry weather during the middle of next week with above average temperatures.

Models continue to hint at better rain and snow chances late next week and next weekend. Still too early to evaluate potential impacts, but will keep an eye on trends. Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks do have NorCal with favored odds of above normal precipitation at that time.