The forecast remains on track this morning with the main concern for today being elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, dry and breezy conditions are expected; however, the northerly winds across the Valley will not being as strong yesterday`s. Temperatures today will span across the 90s for much of the CWA, with the mountains and foothills seeing temperatures range from the mid 60s to the 80s.
Looking to the start of the work week, a new concern of excessive heat will arise. High temperatures for the Valley are expected to soar into the 100s for both Monday and Tuesday. The Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for portions of the Valley for both these days. Groups sensitive to heat and outdoor workers should take precautions. In the mountains, highs will reach into the 70s and 80s.
Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
General long wave pattern has a ridge of high pressure over the west coast through the extended period. This will bring high temperatures each day Thursday through Sunday to a few to several degrees above season normals. Main forecast problem will be series of shortwave disturbances forecast by deterministic models to move through weak zonal flow along the south portion of the west coast ridge. These disturbances may be able to produce a few mountains showers at times during the extended period. GFS is more bullish with these disturbances painting some mountain precipitation at some point nearly every day of the extended period. ECMWF nearly dry through the extended with National Blend nearly dry as well. Can not ignore these disturbances all together, however, and have introduced some slight threat of afternoon showers Thursday and Friday where GFS and ECMWF seem to align. Have only introduced slight chances of afternoon showers/thunderstorms over small regions with most of cwa keeping a dry forecast.