Heating back up, smoke is here to stay

August 6, 2018 – August 6, 2018 – Less winds with hot and dry conditions this week. Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact the air quality. Slight cool down next weekend.

Discussion

The upper level ridge over the desert southwest will be pushing back to the west and will dominate the weather this week. This will bring the return of hot and dry conditions to NorCal. Winds will be a bit breezy in the southwest part of the CWA tomorrow afternoon, otherwise we will see light winds across the area through at least mid week. Smoke will continue to be an issue across the area this week because of the Carr and Mendocino complex fires.

Air quality should be monitored for those sensitive to smoke the rest of the week. We should see some of the smoke clear in the Sacramento and Stockton areas as a weak delta breeze develops in the evening but smoke will fill back into those areas during the morning hours.

Depending on the thickness of the smoke, high temperatures will be tricky. The thicker the smoke, there will be limited heating, but very poor air quality. Right now have trended the forecast highs slightly below guidance, but still above seasonal averages.

Extended discussion (Friday through Monday)

Short wave trough moves through the PacNW Friday into Sunday with associated broad troughing over NorCal. This will result in slight cooling over the forecast area, but continued above normal temperatures. Models differ into early next week with EC bringing deep upper low into PacNW while GFS expands Desert SW High back over NorCal.

With uncertainties, current forecast trends towards climatology temperature wise early next week. Mainly dry weather expected with wildfire smoke likely to continue resulting in poor air quality.