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July 11, 2018 – Hot temperatures continue through the week into the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the higher elevations late week into the weekend.
Discussion (Today through Saturday)
A ridge over the Great Basin will slowly retrograde pushing monsoon moisture north into the region later Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday as there will be a lack of CAPE and forcing, but an isolated afternoon storm can’t be ruled out in the far southeast part of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to overspread NorCal on Thursday with decent MUCAPE over the mountains, mainly south of I-80. Storms still should remain on the isolated side due to a lack of forcing. Moisture and MUCAPE looks to overspread the rest of the mountains and coastal range on Friday, and as such I have increase the chance of precipitation in the forecast.
However, once again models currently lack any strong forcing which should keep convection isolated in nature. Moisture retreats east Saturday, limiting isolated showers and thunderstorms to the southeast portion of the CWA again.
Hot temperatures will continue leading into the weekend. The northern Sacramento valley could see high temperatures up to 108 degrees through Saturday. This remains just below heat advisory levels, though it does bring a moderate heat risk for the northern valley and foothills. The rest of the valley will remain in the mid to upper 90s due to weak onshore flow, and the foothills and mountains will range from the 70s to 90s.
Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Upper level high pressure will continue to influence the weather across northern California for Sunday through the middle of next week. Light northwesterly to northerly flow across the Sierra will keep afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances confined to the Sierra mainly south of highway 50, although other mountain pop up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Warm weather will continue with temperatures ranging between 5 and 10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Temperatures will return to just slightly above normal through mid week.