January 16, 2024 – Rain and high elevation snow returns today and lingers into Wednesday. Active weather picks up by the weekend. More significant precipitation this weekend, best chances Sunday bringing moderate impacts and high elevation snow.
Discussion
Upper ridge is cresting the region currently and has allowed stratus and fog to redevelop in the Central Valley and mountain valleys overnight. Some dense fog has developed along the periphery of the stratus, mainly over the northern Sacramento Valley and around the Delta region. Current temperatures across the valley range from the mid 30s near Redding, to the upper 40s to lower 50s across the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 11 AM.
Mainly light precipitation will develop this afternoon mainly north of I-80 and spread southeastward tonight as warm-advection increases ahead of a fast-moving short-wave. QPF is expected to be less than half an inch in the valley with up to an inch over the mountains.
High snow levels will limit winter travel impacts to just the higher passes where 1 to 3 inches may accumulate.
Ridging brings a return of dry weather for Thursday and most of Friday before precipitation chances return later in the day.
Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Wet pattern continues Saturday through Monday as multiple short waves traverse through an AR1 into NorCal. Periods of rain, mountain snow, and gusty wind are expected.
WPC liquid storm total Saturday through Monday showing 1-3 inches in the Central Valley, and 2-6 inches in the foothills and mountains, locally higher.
Snow levels remain above 6000 feet during this period with several feet of snow expected at the higher elevations.
NBM continues POPs Tuesday, however deterministic models suggest drier conditions day 8 under short wave ridging.