December 14, 2023 – Dry weather with mild days and cool nights this week. Precip chances return late this weekend and early next week. Periods of heaviest precipitation anticipated late Sunday through Tuesday.
Discussion
High pressure will remain over the region into Saturday with high clouds spilling over the ridge and into our forecast area the next couple of days. Patches of frost and fog look to continue into Saturday in the valley with the fog mainly near water ways in the central part of the valley and is being limited by the high clouds. Mild days and chilly nights will continue through this period.
Next chance of rain looks to occur on Sunday. NBM still has some chances Saturday night but has backed off on the percent chances with this evenings model run and will likely continue to do so. The start of any rain on Sunday remains uncertain with the low becoming cutoff from the jet on Saturday.
The sub-tropical jet does look like it will try to push the cutoff low inland on Sunday with the best chances during the day along the coastal range and western part of the Sacramento valley and increased chances Sunday night for the remainder of the area.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Series of Pacific storms progged through Monday into Thursday bringing periods of rain, mountain snow, and gusty wind.
Snow levels will generally be at or above 6500 feet. WPC liquid storm total through Thursday looks around 1-3 inches in the Central Valley and 2-7 inches in the foothills/mountains.
Several feet of snow possible over higher elevations.
• Probability of >4.00″: 20-50% at elevations higher than 7000 Ft.
• Probability of >8.00″: 10-35% at elevations higher than 7500 Ft.
• Best chances near Lassen Peak and south of Hwy 50