Precipitation will taper off this morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday. Another weather system will bring precipitation and gusty wind by early next week.
Discussion
Radar shows the large area of light to moderate rain gradually pushing off to the east. Rainfall rates have mostly been around 0.10″-0.20″/hr with a few nearly up to 0.50″/hr briefly.
Snow continues in the Sierra where snow levels are beginning to lower (KBLU just switched over to snow in the past hour). Still seeing a few southerly wind gusts approaching 40 mph, but these will continue to subside before sunrise as surface pressure gradient eases with the passing of the front.
While widespread precipitation will end this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by this afternoon. Heavy rain may accompany stronger storms that develop, particularly at the north end of the valley where a convergence line may develop, and areas of the valley from Sacramento southward. HREF probabilities of 0.50″/hr rates are around 30-40% in those areas, and around 10% for 1″/hr rates south of Sacramento.
In the Sierra, the snow level will continue to lower to around 4-5k ft. The heaviest snow is expected through about late morning with a break potentially into this evening before snow picks up again through Friday evening.
In the valley, shower chances will continue through Friday and a few thunderstorms will be possible again Friday afternoon. Saturday looks to mostly offer a brief break from the wet weather before another wet and windy system moves up from the southwest on Sunday.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Upper low off the CA Coast Monday and associated AR1 push widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation into the CWA from the SW. Snow levels trend up Monday under influence of warm conveyor belt.
Brunt of precip moves through during the day with stratiform precip turning showery Monday night. WPC QPF thru 12z Tue showing around 1.5 to over 2.5 inches in the Central Valley and 2-6 inches of liquid QPF in the foothills and mountains. 2-4 feet of snow, locally higher, forecast above 6000 feet.
Cyclonic flow with persistent upper low offshore will continue showery weather Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly over the southern half of the CWA.
Forecast uncertainty increases beyond midweek as model diverge. NBM/EC and thus forecast favors wetter weather continuing Thursday as another short wave trough drops into interior NorCal under NWlyflow aloft.