June 5, 2018 – Dry weather this week with temperatures cooling to around average.
Discussion
Upper trough is settling into the region bringing some areas of high clouds along with significant cooling. Onshore gradients have increased considerably and current temperatures are running around5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago across much of the area.
Temperatures will cool a bit further today and Wednesday before warming slightly Thursday and Friday as the trough weakens. Ingredients for deeper convection likely to remain further to the north and east of the forecast area through the week.
Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Medium-range models are trending deeper / stronger with an upper trough that will pass through California this weekend. The GFS is a bit stronger with this trough than the ECMWF, but both bring a chance of precipitation to the far northern portions of the state on Saturday.
Additionally we’ve lowered our temperature forecast for the weekend with this trough, as guidance currently suggests highs could be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. Temperatures should start to rebound Sunday into next week as the trough shifts eastward, and flat ridging moves over the region.