October 16, 2020 – Critical fire weather conditions continue today with gradually decreasing winds. Unseasonably warm and dry weather persists.
Discussion
Clear skies cover the region early this morning as the strong offshore wind pattern persists. MFR-SAC and RNO-SAC gradient has been around 12-13 mbs since Thursday evening. Northerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph have been common across the northern Sacramento Valley and western edge. Local gusts of 40-50 mph have been occurring over the foothills and west slopes of the northern Sierra, and the usually windy spot at Jarbo Gap (east of Chico) has been reporting gusts above 60 mph. Red flag conditions continue with widespread RH values in the teens and 20s percent currently.
Pressure gradients forecast to slacken today with less breezy conditions expected by the afternoon. Nevertheless, the red flag warning will be extended through 6 PM as enough wind continues this afternoon with the extremely dry conditions.
Unseasonably warm and very dry conditions will continue into early next week, though not as breezy.
Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Dry weather and a slight cooling trend expected through the extended forecast. Models continue to indicate weak troughing across NorCal early next week with a trough forecast to move into the Central US Wednesday and Thursday. This could bring a period of elevated fire weather conditions mid to late week. High temperatures remain roughly five degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures slowly decreasing towards near average values by Friday.