October 25, 2018 – Warm and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. High temperatures will return to well above average today. Breezy north winds possible early next week.
Discussion
Other than a few high clouds spilling over the building ridge across the eastern Pacific into NorCal, skies are clear early this morning. Current temperatures are a little milder across much of the region and range from the lower 30s in the mountain valleys to the 50s across the Central Valley.
Warmer temperatures return to the region for the next several days as strong ridging builds into the West. High temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees above average through Saturday. A cold front is forecast to push into far northern California on Sunday bringing some clouds along with cooler and locally breezy conditions. Shower chances are expected to remain across the far northern portion of the state.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Upper trough moving through Pacific Northwest and NorCal will cool daytime highs down to near normal Monday. Current models paint light precipitation across much of Shasta county and down the southern Cascades as the upper trough shifts into the northern Great Basin in the afternoon.
As the upper trough moves eastward, surface high pressure pushes in over the Pacific Northwest creating a fairly tight northerly surface gradient. Combined with moderate upper level support and subsidence from building upper ridge, breezy north winds will develop by Tuesday morning.
The strongest winds look to be Tuesday night with GFS 925mb winds reaching 35 knots west side of valley and lake county. Temperatures warm to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday with lowering humidity.
As a result of the wind and drying, fire danger is likely to rise again until the wind starts to recede late Wednesday. Temperatures warm just a bit more on Thursday as high pressure builds over the west coast.