February 6, 2020 – Warming trend with dry conditions through the rest of the week. Turning windy and cooler late in the weekend, with a few light Sierra snow showers on Sunday.
Discussion
Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region early this morning as the upper ridge centered over the eastern Pacific extends into NorCal pushing the arc of high clouds spilling over the ridge further to our east. Airmass continues to recover from the last system with most locations reporting higher dew points and milder temperatures compared to 24 hours ago. Current temps range from the mid 20s in the mountain valleys to the mid 40s across milder portions of the Central Valley and across foothill and mountain thermal belts.
Highly amplified pattern will maintain dry weather across the region through the remainder of the week. Gradual modification of the airmass will lead to slow moderation of temperatures today and Friday.
Cooling will return on Saturday as a backdoor cold front drops down from the northeast as an “Inside Slider” weather system affects NorCal during the weekend. Only minor precipitation is expected across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada later Saturday night into Sunday. North winds will increase across the area behind the front on Sunday.
Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Upper ridging builds into interior NorCal Monday into Tuesday bringing drier weather with locally gusty north to east wind. Deterministic models continue to diverge significantly beyond Tuesday with timing and track of next digging short wave trough. Ensemble solutions point to a track across the PacNW into the Great Basin. Based on forecast track, moisture with this system appears limited, and main threat of precipitation appears to be over the Shasta and Western Plumas mountains and Northern Sierra Nevada mid-week.