North Ops Predictive Services

Significant fire potential is projected to be above normal up to 6000 feet during July and all elevations during August except for near coastal areas, including the North Coast and Bay Area-Marine Predictive Services Area (PSAs). All areas and elevations are forecast to have above normal potential during September, with areas west of the lower […]

The Predictive Services 4-month weather outlook for the North Ops region calls for mixed temperature anomalies with near to below normal precipitation. Drought conditions are expected to intensify but not strengthen as significantly the next 2 to 3 months compared to what it did last year due to less extended heat wave events. Critically dry […]

The Predictive Services 4-month weather outlook for the North Ops region calls for near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. Drought conditions are expected to intensify the rest of the spring into the summer months due to the expected weather patterns. Critically dry fuel alignments, between the dead and live fuels, […]

The Predictive Services 4-month weather outlook for the North Ops region calls for mixed conditions but generally drier and warmer than normal during the earlier and latter stages of the outlook with a better frequency of moisture during December. The most flammable areas, or alignment in critically low dead-live fuel moisture, should be found west […]

The Predictive Services 4-month outlook for the North Ops region calls for drier and warmer than average weather into November, with only small exceptions, followed by wetter than average conditions in December. Lightning events will be few and brief into October, if they develop at all. A few monsoon thunderstorm patterns developed in CA in […]

The Predictive Services 4-month outlook for the North Ops region calls for drier and warmer than average weather through November, with only small exceptions. Monsoon thunderstorm surges are expected to occur less often than usual through the end of the summer because low pressure troughing along the coast will prevail more often than usual, and […]

The Predictive Services 4-month outlook for the North Ops region calls for drier and warmer than average weather through October. There is some indication of a semi-regular low pressure trough positioned along the west coast during the summer, which could lead to shorter stretches of intense dry heat. Fuels, both dead and live and of […]

The Predictive Services 4-month outlook for the North Ops region calls for drier and warmer than average weather through September. There is some indication of a semi-regular low pressure trough positioned along the west coast much of the summer, which could lead to shorter stretches of intense dry heat. Fuels, both dead and live and […]

May 4, 2021 – The Predictive Services 4-month outlook for the North Ops region calls for drier and warmer than average weather through August. There is some indication of a semi-regular low pressure trough positioned along the west coast much of the summer, which could lead to shorter stretched of intense dry heat. Fuels, both […]

September 3, 2020 – The official Predictive Services outlook calls for drier and warmer than average conditions in the North Ops region through December. The above normal cured fine fuel crop will be vulnerable to rapid spread rates and extreme fire behavior during dry breezy weather patterns, which will increase in frequency starting in mid […]

August 3, 2020 – The official Predictive Services outlook calls for drier and warmer than average conditions in the North Ops region in August, followed by closer to average conditions from September through November. The above normal cured fine fuel crop will be vulnerable to rapid spread rates and extreme fire behavior during dry breezy […]

July 2, 2020 – The official Predictive Services outlook calls for drier and warmer than average conditions in the North Ops region through October. The above normal cured fine fuel crop will be vulnerable to rapid spread rates and extreme fire behavior during dry breezy weather patterns, which will become more common in Sept-Oct. Occasional […]

June 3, 2020 – The official Predictive Services outlook, produced in mid May, calls for drier and warmer than average conditions in the North Ops region during June-September. The above normal cured fine fuel crop will be vulnerable to rapid spread rates of wildfires beginning in June when N-NE/Offshore wind patterns develop. This pattern is […]

November 3, 2019 – The 4-month Predictive Service outlook calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the North Ops region through February 2020. Very dry conditions remain in place across the region as November begins. There are hints of a large-scale pattern change to more low pressure in the eastern north Pacific beginning […]

October 2, 2019 – The 4-month Predictive Service outlook calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the North Ops region through January 2020. The outlook also calls for slightly more than the usual amount of high pressure ridging in the eastern Pacific, which would lead to more than the typical amount of N-NE/Offshore […]

September 3, 2019 – The 4-month Predictive Service outlook calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the North Ops region through December. The outlook also calls for more than the usual amount of high pressure ridging in the eastern Pacific, which would lead to more than the typical amount of N-NE/Offshore wind events. […]

August 5, 2019 – The 4-month Predictive Service outlook calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the North Ops region through November. The high elevation snow pack has led to fairly high soil and fuel moisture values at elevations above 6000 ft, and these areas will likely remain at the lower end of […]

July 2, 2019 – Other than occasional convective showers and thunderstorms in the mountains, June was dry in the North Ops region. Since January 1st, however, the region has received well above average precipitation, with only a few small areas in the far north slightly drier than average. June was notably warmer than average in […]

June 1, 2019 – The majority of the North Ops region received well above average precipitation in May. Only portions of the far northern end of the region were drier than normal. Since January 1st the entire region has received above average precipitation, with a large portion at 150% or more of normal. Average temperatures […]

September 4, 2018 – The North Ops region was very dry in August. The region saw more time spent under the influence of dry low pressure troughs in August than usual. That, and persistent thick smoke from active wildfires, contributed to fairly mild temperatures and another quiet month in terms of lightning activity. Northern and […]